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New Framework Models Human-Like Behavior in Emergency Evacuations

Zoi Lygizou, Michalis Zervas, Helena G. Theodoropoulou, Vasilis Zafeiropoulos, Dimitris Kalles, Chairi Kiourt· June 30, 2026 View original

Summary

This paper introduces an extended agent-based evacuation framework that integrates cognitive, emotional, social, and personality mechanisms to simulate human behavior under uncertainty. The model incorporates dynamic event awareness, memory-based exit knowledge, a continuous fear model, and OCEAN-based personality traits, leading to more realistic crowd dynamics.

Agent-based simulations of emergency evacuations often rely on simplified assumptions about human behavior, such as perfect awareness and rationality. This research presents a more sophisticated framework that incorporates a comprehensive set of human-like attributes to create more realistic evacuation models. The framework integrates cognitive processes, emotional states, social influences, and individual personality traits. Key components include a dynamic "Event Certainty Level" for awareness, a memory system for exit knowledge that accounts for acquisition and forgetting, and a continuous fear model where panic is an intense state. The model also uses the OCEAN personality framework, explicitly integrating neuroticism to influence fear generation, social contagion, and recovery. Individualized decision thresholds further capture behavioral heterogeneity. Simulation experiments demonstrate that these integrated cognitive, emotional, and personality factors significantly impact evacuation dynamics. They lead to reduced efficiency and generate realistic crowd phenomena like delays, confusion, injuries, and socially influenced behaviors, offering a more accurate tool for studying complex human responses in emergencies.

Why it matters

For urban planners, safety engineers, and emergency management professionals, this framework provides a powerful tool to design safer public spaces, optimize evacuation routes, and develop more effective emergency response protocols by better predicting human behavior.

How to implement this in your domain

  1. 1Utilize this advanced simulation framework to model and analyze evacuation scenarios for new building designs or public events.
  2. 2Incorporate psychological and behavioral insights into emergency preparedness training, recognizing the impact of fear and personality.
  3. 3Develop adaptive emergency communication strategies that account for varying levels of event awareness and emotional states in a crowd.
  4. 4Design public spaces with consideration for how cognitive biases and social dynamics might affect evacuation efficiency.

Who benefits

Urban PlanningEmergency ManagementArchitecturePublic SafetyEvent Management

Key takeaways

  • Traditional evacuation models often oversimplify human behavior.
  • A new framework integrates cognition, emotion, social factors, and personality for realistic simulations.
  • Dynamic awareness, memory, fear models, and OCEAN personality traits are key components.
  • These factors significantly influence evacuation dynamics, leading to more accurate predictions of crowd behavior.

Original post by Zoi Lygizou, Michalis Zervas, Helena G. Theodoropoulou, Vasilis Zafeiropoulos, Dimitris Kalles, Chairi Kiourt

"arXiv:2606.29212v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Agent-based evacuation simulations are widely used to study crowd behavior during emergencies, but many models rely on assumptions such as perfect event awareness, complete exit knowledge, and fully rational decision-making. This pa…"

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Originally posted by Zoi Lygizou, Michalis Zervas, Helena G. Theodoropoulou, Vasilis Zafeiropoulos, Dimitris Kalles, Chairi Kiourt on X · view source

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