Clustering Framework Detects Suspicious Trading Patterns in Capital Markets

Asif Zaman, Romona Magdalene Sarkar, Sabiha Khair Ohi, Iftekharul Mobin· July 7, 2026 View original

Summary

This study introduces an unsupervised fraud-detection toolkit utilizing K-Means++ clustering to identify suspicious trading patterns in capital markets. Analyzing a large dataset of financial transactions, the framework flagged 2.02% of trades as suspicious, categorizing them into types like spoofing, pump and dump, and insider trading.

Researchers have developed an unsupervised fraud-detection framework aimed at identifying suspicious trading patterns within capital markets. The toolkit begins with K-Means++ clustering, applied to a substantial dataset of approximately one million financial transactions spanning over a decade. The primary goal is to combat market manipulation, which erodes confidence in trading platforms. The proposed methodology highlights 2.02% of the analyzed trades as suspicious. Further categorization, based on market practice heuristic thresholds, revealed that 51.10% of these suspicious trades indicated spoofing, 0.10% suggested pump and dump schemes, 0.55% pointed to insider trading, and 1.43% indicated fake breakouts. A significant portion (46.83%) remained unclassified. Despite the absence of ground truth labels, the model's performance was supported by a Silhouette Score of 0.561, indicating reasonable clustering quality.

Why it matters

For professionals in financial services and regulatory bodies, this framework offers a valuable tool to proactively detect and categorize various forms of market manipulation, enhancing market integrity and protecting investors.

How to implement this in your domain

  1. 1Integrate unsupervised clustering algorithms, like K-Means++, into existing fraud detection systems.
  2. 2Collect and preprocess large datasets of financial transaction data for pattern analysis.
  3. 3Define and apply market practice heuristic thresholds to categorize identified suspicious patterns.
  4. 4Develop a system for continuous monitoring of trading activities using the clustering framework.
  5. 5Collaborate with compliance and regulatory teams to investigate and act upon flagged suspicious trades.

Who benefits

Financial ServicesRegulatory BodiesInvestment BankingFintechLaw Enforcement

Key takeaways

  • Unsupervised clustering can effectively identify suspicious trading patterns without prior labels.
  • A significant percentage of trades can be flagged as potentially manipulative.
  • Heuristic thresholds help categorize suspicious activities like spoofing and insider trading.
  • Such tools enhance market integrity and aid in fraud detection.

Original post by Asif Zaman, Romona Magdalene Sarkar, Sabiha Khair Ohi, Iftekharul Mobin

"arXiv:2607.04184v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Market manipulation is the dubious practice of manipulating stock prices in order to make a quick profit, which truly degrades confidence on trading platforms. We implemented an unsupervised fraud-detection toolkit that begins with…"

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Originally posted by Asif Zaman, Romona Magdalene Sarkar, Sabiha Khair Ohi, Iftekharul Mobin on X · view source

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