Frontier AI Unevenly Impacts Global Economies and Labor Markets

The impact of advanced AI on labor markets is a critical concern for workers, businesses, and governments worldwide. However, most existing evidence on these effects comes from a limited number of affluent economies. This study addresses that gap by developing a national AI exposure metric, which combines occupation-level exposure scores with international employment data across 141 countries. The findings indicate a substantial disparity in AI exposure, with high-income nations facing considerably greater impact than low-income ones. Europe and Central Asia, for instance, are 50% more exposed than Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, a significant gender gap exists, as women are more exposed than men in 91% of countries, primarily due to their concentration in white-collar and sales roles. The research also highlights an indirect exposure mechanism: countries like Tajikistan, which depend heavily on remittances from highly AI-exposed nations like Russia, experience an elevated overall exposure despite lower direct impact. This suggests that AI policy responses tailored to specific high-income markets may not be universally applicable.