CC-AOS Optimizes Time-Series Optimal Stopping Decisions

Tianwei Yu· July 28, 2026 View original

Summary

CC-AOS is a structured amortized solver for finite-horizon optimal stopping problems, enabling efficient decisions in early time-series classification. It learns a shared continuation-value model conditioned on state, time, horizon, and acquisition cost, outperforming independent solvers by reducing terminal risk and sampling costs.

Finite-horizon optimal stopping is a critical problem in early time-series classification, where a system must decide at each sequence prefix whether the expected benefit of another observation justifies its acquisition cost. Existing data-driven backward-induction methods typically solve each cost-horizon operating point separately, leading to inefficiencies as changing operating conditions require repeated optimization and separate model stacks. Researchers propose CC-AOS (Cost- and Horizon-Conditioned Amortized Optimal Stopping), a structured amortized solver designed for a family of finite-horizon stopping problems with continuous costs and multiple horizons. CC-AOS learns a single, shared continuation-value model that is dynamically conditioned on the current state, absolute time, remaining horizon, and the acquisition cost. This is achieved through joint amortized fitted backward induction. The framework incorporates established properties of exact value and continuation functions, such as being nondecreasing, concave, and horizon-dependently Lipschitz in cost, directly into the model architecture. Experiments on controlled Gaussian and time-varying non-Gaussian processes, as well as the FordA engine-noise time-series benchmark, demonstrated that a single CC-AOS checkpoint consistently achieved a lower terminal-risk-plus-sampling-cost objective than independently fitted Convex Function Learning solvers across six unseen FordA cost-horizon pairs, with an average reduction of 15.75 percent, while matching tuned static thresholds on average.

Why it matters

This framework provides a more efficient and adaptable solution for critical decision-making in real-time systems, allowing professionals to optimize trade-offs between information acquisition costs and decision accuracy across varying operational conditions and time horizons.

How to implement this in your domain

  1. 1Analyze existing time-series classification or sequential decision-making processes for optimal stopping opportunities.
  2. 2Investigate the CC-AOS framework for integrating cost and horizon conditioning into decision models.
  3. 3Develop a shared continuation-value model that can dynamically adapt to changing acquisition costs and remaining horizons.
  4. 4Implement and test CC-AOS on real-world time-series data, such as sensor readings or financial market data.
  5. 5Evaluate the economic benefits of reduced sampling costs and improved decision accuracy compared to current methods.

Who benefits

ManufacturingFinanceHealthcareAutonomous SystemsLogistics

Key takeaways

  • Optimal stopping in time-series often requires separate models for each cost-horizon point.
  • CC-AOS learns a single, shared model conditioned on cost, horizon, state, and time.
  • It significantly reduces terminal risk and sampling costs compared to independent solvers.
  • This framework enables efficient, adaptive decision-making for dynamic stopping problems.

Original post by Tianwei Yu

"arXiv:2607.22774v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Finite-horizon optimal stopping is a central problem in early time-series classification, where a system must decide at each sequence prefix whether the expected benefit of another observation justifies its acquisition cost. Existin…"

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