MoFE Framework Boosts Cryptocurrency Price Forecasting Accuracy

Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun· August 19, 2026 View original

Key takeaways

  • Cryptocurrency forecasting is challenging due to non-stationarity and multi-scale dependencies.
  • MoFE, a Mixture-of-Experts with Fourier Neural Operators, offers a novel solution.
  • The framework effectively mitigates phase-lag and achieves state-of-the-art forecasting performance.
  • MoFE demonstrates significant excess returns and robust risk-adjusted performance in simulated trading.

Who benefits

BFSIFinTechInvestment ManagementQuantitative Trading

Summary

This research introduces MoFE, a novel deep learning framework combining Fourier Neural Operators (FNOs) with a Mixture-of-Experts (MoE) architecture for cryptocurrency price forecasting. MoFE effectively addresses non-stationarity and phase-lag issues, achieving state-of-the-art performance and significant excess returns in simulated trading.

Forecasting cryptocurrency prices is notoriously difficult due to their volatile, non-stationary nature, frequent regime shifts, and complex multi-scale dependencies. Traditional deep learning models often struggle with these characteristics, leading to persistent phase-lagged predictions that diminish their practical utility. This paper proposes a new approach to overcome these limitations. The researchers introduce MoFE (Mixture-of-Experts with Fourier Neural Operators), a novel deep learning framework. MoFE is designed to conceptualize cryptocurrency volatility as a combination of multi-frequency components, including fundamental growth, seasonal mining costs, and market sentiment. It integrates specialized adaptive FNO (AFNO) and Convolution dual-domain experts to capture global spectral trends, cyclical adjustments, and microstructures. A dynamic gating mechanism within the MoE architecture allows MoFE to adaptively switch strategies across different market regimes. Extensive experiments on Bitcoin datasets from 2020 to 2025 demonstrate MoFE's state-of-the-art performance for both short-term (T+1) and longer-term (T+5) forecasting. The model significantly reduces phase-lag, delivering superior Directional Accuracy and Information Coefficient, and translates these predictive gains into substantial excess returns and robust risk-adjusted performance in simulated trading environments.

Why it matters

Professionals in quantitative finance, asset management, or fintech can leverage this advanced forecasting model to improve cryptocurrency trading strategies, mitigate risks, and potentially generate higher returns.

How to implement this in your domain

  1. 1Evaluate existing cryptocurrency forecasting models for phase-lag and accuracy issues.
  2. 2Research the MoFE framework, specifically its integration of FNOs and MoE architecture.
  3. 3Consider developing or licensing a system that incorporates MoFE's principles for cryptocurrency price prediction.
  4. 4Backtest MoFE-based strategies rigorously in simulated trading environments using historical data.
  5. 5Integrate MoFE's insights into real-time trading algorithms or investment decision-making processes.

Original post by Bowen Liu, Mingming Sun

"arXiv:2608.17342v1 Announce Type: new Abstract: Forecasting cryptocurrency prices remains a formidable challenge due to inherent non-stationarity, abrupt regime shifts, and multi-scale stochastic dependencies. Conventional deep learning models often struggle to capture complex un…"

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